🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform User Earned $436,000 from Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader just before it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the leader would be removed from office by the end of January increased in the time leading up to President Donald Trump declared on the weekend that the president had been apprehended. A particular user, which registered on the site recently and made four bets, all on Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before Announcement Platform data shows that users estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet these probabilities had increased to eleven percent by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the morning of January 3rd, suggesting a rapid movement in positions immediately prior to the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a bet based on inside information," stated a financial reform advocate. Several of other traders also profited significant sums from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Elected officials are growing concerned. A new rule put forward on Monday seeks to ban public officials from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a wager. Industry Context Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the United States, with users able to bet on everything from elections to political events. This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the Biden administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting arena. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."